DAADA NEWS · ELECTION GUIDE

The races. The stakes.
What your ballot can change.

Understand the coming U.S. and Israeli elections, the limits of the polls, and selected state ballot measures—with sources and without treating predictions as results.

Polling/briefing research checked October 25; Senate analyst outlook checked October 26, with its own source dates shown. This is a dated guide, not a live results service. Source publication dates are listed separately.

U.S. elections Congress and governors Israel’s election Parties and coalition arithmetic Explore the seats Senate, House and governors Ballot measures What yes and no mean

SENATE · ANALYST OUTLOOK

Projected outcomes, not poll leaders

Forecast ratings, not election results. Inside Elections rates the races using more than polls. “Tilt” means a very slight edge; “lean” means a modest advantage; “likely” and “solid” indicate stronger advantages, not guarantees. Toss-ups have no assigned winner. This view can differ from the latest-poll map, including in Ohio.

Ratings as of 2026-10-15 · checked 2026-10-26. This is a dated snapshot, not a live forecast.

Provider’s projected range: Inside Elections’ national outlook, checked October 26, calls for a Democratic net gain of 3–5 seats. Starting from the current 47-seat Democratic-aligned caucus, that implies 50–52 seats, versus 48–50 Republicans. The national outlook is separate from the race-rating allocation below; its publication date is not separately stated on the page.

48Democratic-aligned32 Democrats + 2 independents not up, plus 14 favored races

4Unassigned4 toss-ups; no winner assumed

48Republican31 not up, plus 17 favored races

These are seats not up + analyst-favored races, not a statistical expected value or guaranteed minimum. Favored races can flip. The two continuing independents, Angus King and Bernie Sanders, caucus with Democrats. A 51-seat bloc is an outright majority; 50–50 control depends on the vice president’s tie-breaking vote. No fabricated win probabilities or forced toss-up winners.

Solid DemocraticLikely DemocraticLean DemocraticTilt DemocraticToss-upTilt RepublicanLean RepublicanLikely RepublicanSolid RepublicanNo Senate election

Geography: Census-derived us-atlas state boundaries; Alaska and Hawaii are insets.

Select a Senate race

Select a state for its projected outcome. Use the dropdown for small states.

All 35 Senate race projections

Attributed analyst outlook; no winner assigned to toss-ups
Race	Rating
Alaska Senate election	Toss-up
Alabama Senate election	Solid Republican
Arkansas Senate election	Solid Republican
Colorado Senate election	Solid Democratic
Delaware Senate election	Solid Democratic
Florida special Senate election (special)	Likely Republican
Georgia Senate election	Lean Democratic
Iowa Senate election	Tilt Republican
Idaho Senate election	Solid Republican
Illinois Senate election	Solid Democratic
Kansas Senate election	Tilt Republican
Kentucky Senate election	Solid Republican
Louisiana Senate election	Solid Republican
Massachusetts Senate election	Solid Democratic
Maine Senate election	Toss-up
Michigan Senate election	Tilt Democratic
Minnesota Senate election	Lean Democratic
Mississippi Senate election	Solid Republican
Montana Senate election	Solid Republican
North Carolina Senate election	Lean Democratic
Nebraska Senate election	Lean Republican
New Hampshire Senate election	Tilt Democratic
New Jersey Senate election	Solid Democratic
New Mexico Senate election	Solid Democratic
Ohio special Senate election (special)	Toss-up
Oklahoma Senate election	Solid Republican
Oregon Senate election	Solid Democratic
Rhode Island Senate election	Solid Democratic
South Carolina Senate election	Lean Republican
South Dakota Senate election	Solid Republican
Tennessee Senate election	Solid Republican
Texas Senate election	Toss-up
Virginia Senate election	Solid Democratic
West Virginia Senate election	Solid Republican
Wyoming Senate election	Solid Republican

Where this projection comes from

Single-provider snapshot from Inside Elections’ public Senate ratings data, last updated October 15, 2026 and checked October 26. Individual ratings may have been unchanged for longer. The 65 seats not up are counted separately from the 35 November races. Tilt is retained as the weakest advantage category; it is not silently converted to lean. No ratings are inferred from the party currently holding a seat.

We do not turn one poll into a win prediction, infer ratings from incumbent party, or copy a provider’s forecast model. Ratings and polling measurements answer different questions. These categories are not numerical probabilities; the seat allocation is simple category arithmetic with toss-ups left open.

Inside Elections Senate outlook
Inside Elections public Senate ratings data · 2026-10-15T13:35:48-05:00
Congressional Research Service: 119th Congress profile · 2025-05-21

THE U.S. ELECTION LANDSCAPE

Who leads the latest checked poll?

Polling leaders, not predicted winners. The latest checked fieldwork determines each color, not an average or a polling consensus. A newer poll is not necessarily more accurate. Blue means a Democrat leads; red means a Republican leads. Stripes mean the lead has limited or uncertain support, including a single poll or a small gap. Dotted, faded colors show an older September–early October poll when no recent poll was verified. Colors never indicate the incumbent party. Research checked October 25, 2026; select a race for its actual poll dates and figures.

Democratic lead · multiple clear pollsRepublican lead · multiple clear pollsDemocratic lead · limited/uncertainRepublican lead · limited/uncertainOther-party lead · limited/uncertainDemocratic lead · older pollRepublican lead · older pollOther-party lead · older pollTied or conflicting latest pollsInsufficient verified pollingNo election

Senate: 35 races

22 races have recent verified polling; 2 use an older poll; 11 have no verified September–October polling here. Gray means missing polling evidence, not a safe seat. White states have no election for this office.

Geographic U.S. state boundaries, with Alaska and Hawaii shown as insets. Select a state or use the dropdown for small states. An asterisk in the race details identifies a special election.

State geography: U.S. Census Bureau, simplified by us-atlas. Map data credits.

Select a state

Select a state or district for polling details. The complete text list below is available without using the map.

Read the senate race list as a table

2026 polling leaders — not a prediction
Office	Latest checked polling	Evidence
Alaska Senate election	Mary Peltola (D) leads: Mary Peltola 47%, Dan S. Sullivan 44%, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. 4%, Gerald Heikes 1% · Data for Progress, fieldwork ended 2026-10-16	Democratic lead · limited/uncertain
Alabama Senate election	Barry Moore (R) leads: Barry Moore ≈50%, Everett Wess 35% · Cygnal, fieldwork ended 2026-10-17	Republican lead · limited/uncertain
Arkansas Senate election	Tom Cotton (R) leads: Tom Cotton 50%, Hallie Shoffner 41%, Jeff Wadlin 4.5% · Hendrix College / Talk Business & Politics, fieldwork ended 2026-10-13	Republican lead · limited/uncertain
Colorado Senate election	No verified September–October polling in this guide	Insufficient verified polling
Delaware Senate election	No verified September–October polling in this guide	Insufficient verified polling
Florida special Senate election (special)	Ashley Moody (R) leads: Ashley Moody 49%, Angie Nixon 45% · University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab, fieldwork ended 2026-10-19	Republican lead · limited/uncertain
Georgia Senate election	Jon Ossoff (D) leads: Jon Ossoff 48%, Mike Collins 40% · University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs, fieldwork ended 2026-10-15	Democratic lead · limited/uncertain
Iowa Senate election	Ashley Hinson (R) leads: Ashley Hinson 47%, Josh Turek 45% · InsiderAdvantage, fieldwork ended 2026-10-22	Republican lead · limited/uncertain
Idaho Senate election	Jim Risch (R) leads: Jim Risch 49%, Todd Achilles 43% · VoteNexus Research, fieldwork ended 2026-10-22	Republican lead · limited/uncertain
Illinois Senate election	Juliana Stratton (D) leads: Juliana Stratton 58.5%, Don Tracy 41.5% · ActiVote, fieldwork ended 2026-10-20	Democratic lead · limited/uncertain
Kansas Senate election	Roger Marshall (R) leads: Roger Marshall 45.7%, Adam Hamilton 45%, David C. Graham 3% · RedBox Research, fieldwork ended 2026-10-23	Republican lead · limited/uncertain
Kentucky Senate election	No verified September–October polling in this guide	Insufficient verified polling
Louisiana Senate election	OLDER POLL — not current: Julia Letlow (R) leads: Julia Letlow 48%, Jamie Davis 44% · Hart Research Associates, fieldwork ended 2026-09-19	Republican lead · older poll
Massachusetts Senate election	Ed Markey (D) leads: Ed Markey 60%, John Deaton 31.8%, Joe Tache 1.4%, Shiva Ayyadurai 0.8% · Suffolk University, fieldwork ended 2026-10-18	Democratic lead · limited/uncertain
Maine Senate election	Susan Collins (R) leads: Susan Collins 47%, Troy Jackson 46.5% · Trafalgar Group, fieldwork ended 2026-10-23	Republican lead · limited/uncertain
Michigan Senate election	Abdul El-Sayed (D) leads: Abdul El-Sayed 47%, Mike Rogers 46% · InsiderAdvantage, fieldwork ended 2026-10-22	Democratic lead · limited/uncertain
Minnesota Senate election	Peggy Flanagan (D) leads: Peggy Flanagan 48%, Michele Tafoya 45% · Rasmussen Reports / Pulse Opinion Research, fieldwork ended 2026-10-21	Democratic lead · limited/uncertain
Mississippi Senate election	No verified September–October polling in this guide	Insufficient verified polling
Montana Senate election	Kurt Alme (R) leads: Kurt Alme 43.8%, Seth Bodnar 28.2%, Alani Bankhead 20.6%, Kyle Austin 1.7% · Quantus Insights, fieldwork ended 2026-10-18	Republican lead · limited/uncertain
North Carolina Senate election	Roy Cooper (D) leads: Roy Cooper 49.4%, Michael Whatley 39.1%, Shannon Bray 2.9%, Michael Dublin 1.9% · Harper Polling, fieldwork ended 2026-10-20; Roy Cooper (D) leads: Roy Cooper 56.9%, Michael Whatley 43.1% · ActiVote, fieldwork ended 2026-10-20	Democratic lead · multiple clear polls
Nebraska Senate election	Pete Ricketts (R) leads: Pete Ricketts 49%, Dan Osborn 47% · Impact Research, fieldwork ended 2026-10-20	Republican lead · limited/uncertain
New Hampshire Senate election	Chris Pappas (D) leads: Chris Pappas 50%, John E. Sununu 43% · Saint Anselm College Survey Center, fieldwork ended 2026-10-20	Democratic lead · limited/uncertain
New Jersey Senate election	No verified September–October polling in this guide	Insufficient verified polling
New Mexico Senate election	OLDER POLL — not current: Ben Ray Luján (D) leads: Ben Ray Luján 53%, Larry Marker 37% · Research & Polling Inc., fieldwork ended 2026-10-09	Democratic lead · older poll
Ohio special Senate election (special)	Sherrod Brown (D) leads: Sherrod Brown 47%, Jon Husted 44% · InsiderAdvantage, fieldwork ended 2026-10-22	Democratic lead · limited/uncertain
Oklahoma Senate election	No verified September–October polling in this guide	Insufficient verified polling
Oregon Senate election	No verified September–October polling in this guide	Insufficient verified polling
Rhode Island Senate election	Jack Reed (D) leads: Jack Reed 59%, Raymond McKay 25%, Michael Bahry 7% · Emerson College Polling, fieldwork ended 2026-10-11	Democratic lead · limited/uncertain
South Carolina Senate election	Annie Andrews (D) leads: Annie Andrews 45%, Darline Graham 44%, Kasie Whitener 3%, Mark Hackett 2% · Impact Research, fieldwork ended 2026-10-21	Democratic lead · limited/uncertain
South Dakota Senate election	Mike Rounds (R) leads: Mike Rounds 50%, Brian Bengs 42% · Emerson College Polling, fieldwork ended 2026-10-21	Republican lead · multiple clear polls
Tennessee Senate election	No verified September–October polling in this guide	Insufficient verified polling
Texas Senate election	James Talarico (D) leads: James Talarico 48%, Ken Paxton 46%, Ted Brown 1% · Emerson College Polling / Nexstar Media, fieldwork ended 2026-10-19; Tied: James Talarico 49%, Ken Paxton 49% · Beacon Research / Shaw & Company Research, fieldwork ended 2026-10-19	Tied or conflicting latest polls
Virginia Senate election	No verified September–October polling in this guide	Insufficient verified polling
West Virginia Senate election	No verified September–October polling in this guide	Insufficient verified polling
Wyoming Senate election	No verified September–October polling in this guide	Insufficient verified polling

Our method—and its limits

Recent shading uses verified polls whose fieldwork ended October 11–25, 2026. If none is verified, the latest checked general-election poll ending September 1–October 10 is shown with faded dotted party shading and an OLDER POLL label. Older polls are not current measurements or predictions. The party ahead in the latest checked poll determines the color; when polls share the latest fieldwork-end date but disagree on the leader, the race is neutral. Ties are neutral too. Striped blue or red shows a numerical lead with limited or uncertain support: one survey, a narrow gap, missing uncertainty information, or disagreement with earlier checked polls. It does not mean a statistically established advantage.

Solid blue or red requires at least two distinct checked polls agreeing on the party lead, each gap larger than twice the reported individual-share margin of error. This is a conservative editorial screen, not a formal confidence interval or forecast. We do not average unlike samples. Polls with unverified fieldwork are visible in details but excluded from the map. Gray means no verified September–October polling in this guide, not that no polls exist or that the seat is safe.

Polls can have sampling, coverage, turnout and nonresponse errors. Every November Senate race has been checked for available polling; some searches did not yield a verifiable recent survey. House and governor polling coverage remains limited. A national generic ballot is not a district poll. Incumbent party is background only and never controls a polling color.

Additional race ratings

Ratings consider more than polls. “Lean,” “likely” and “solid” are forecasts, not results. We link to the providers rather than reproduce their licensed ratings.

Senate ratings ↗House ratings ↗Governor ratings ↗

U.S. House of Representatives U.S. Senate Daily Press Gallery National Governors Association election calendar

UNITED STATES · NOVEMBER 3

U.S. midterms: national mood, local contests

The November 3 midterms put all 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats and 36 state governorships before voters. Florida and Ohio have special Senate elections. The presidency is not on the ballot.

The race-level snapshots below use individual public polls, not proprietary ratings or a prediction model. Marist’s October 15–18 surveys found narrow Democratic advantages in the Ohio and Michigan Senate races. Emerson’s October 17–19 Texas survey also showed a close Senate contest. Polls can disagree, turnout can change, and sampling error is only one source of uncertainty.

Control of Congress shapes legislation, spending and oversight; the Senate also decides whether to confirm presidential judicial nominees. State governments and ballot measures can directly affect abortion and family policy. Religious groups take differing positions on these questions, including what protecting life and religious liberty requires.

For readers following religious liberty, protection of unborn life, family policy and Israel’s security, the relevant decisions occur at different levels of government. These topics are policy context, not an endorsement or an assumption that Christians vote as a single bloc.

Sources and reporting dates

USPS: Key Elections
FEC 2026 calendar · 2026-05-18
Senate powers and procedures
Religion News Service: abortion ballot measures and faith groups · 2026-10-14
Marist: Ohio · 2026-10-20
Marist: Michigan · 2026-10-21
Emerson: Texas · 2026-10-22

ISRAEL · OCTOBER 27

Israel’s election: a party lead is not a governing majority

Israel votes October 27 for 120 parliamentary seats. Voters choose party lists, not a prime minister directly. A majority requires 61 seats; lists must clear 3.25% of valid votes to enter parliament.

Madad’s October 22–23 survey of 1,875 respondents projected Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar at 22 seats, Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud at 19 and Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid’s Together at 14. Its opposition bloc totaled 54 seats, Netanyahu’s allies 50 and Arab parties 16. The reported ±2.3-percentage-point sampling error is not a margin of error for seats. Turnout and parties close to the threshold can change coalition arithmetic.

Axios reported three final television polls putting Netanyahu’s bloc at 50 seats; Channel 14 differed sharply at 60. Neither party leadership nor a polling lead guarantees a coalition. Opposition resistance to partnerships with Arab parties complicates the numbers.

The stakes include national security, Gaza and West Bank policy, ties with Washington, judicial authority and military-service obligations. These questions matter beyond Israel, including to Christians concerned about regional security and the relationship between religion and government. No candidate can guarantee the eventual coalition’s policies.

Sources and reporting dates

Madad · 2026-10-23
Axios · 2026-10-25
Associated Press · 2026-10-19
European Parliamentary Research Service · 2026-10-15

BEYOND THE CANDIDATES

Ballot measures: abortion, marriage, religion and schools

These selected statewide constitutional amendments concern issues important to many conservative Christians and other voters. Christians do not all share the same political priorities. This guide explains legal effects and competing arguments; it does not recommend a vote. These are not all citizen initiatives, and this is not an exhaustive list.

Read your official sample ballot: numbering and wording differ by state and election year. A “no” vote generally rejects the proposed change—it does not necessarily repeal existing law.

Missouri · Amendment 3

Abortion and gender-transition procedures for minors

A yes vote: Repeals the 2024 constitutional reproductive-rights provision; allows abortion restrictions with exceptions for medical emergencies, fetal anomalies, and rape or incest before 12 weeks; requires parental or judicial consent for minors and prohibits specified gender-transition procedures for minors, with medical exceptions.
A no vote: Keeps the 2024 constitutional provision and does not add the proposed restrictions.

The 2026 Amendment 3 reverses, rather than repeats, the 2024 measure with the same number. A No vote does not repeal separate existing laws.

Arguments and sources

Supporters say: Attorney General Catherine Hanaway argues the prohibition on gender-transition procedures for minors belongs in the state constitution.

Opponents say: Planned Parenthood Great Rivers Action president Margot Riphagen argues patients should make healthcare decisions without political interference.

Sources and reporting dates

Nevada · Question 6

Constitutional right to abortion

A yes vote: Adds a constitutional right to abortion before fetal viability, and afterward when needed to protect the pregnant person's life or health, subject to the amendment's limited government-interest standard.
A no vote: Leaves the constitution unchanged; does not remove Nevada's existing statutory abortion right.

This is the second required approval after the 2024 vote. Existing statutory access generally extends through 24 weeks, with life/health exceptions afterward; that differs from a viability standard.

Arguments and sources

Supporters say: Nevadans for Reproductive Freedom president Lindsey Harmon argues constitutional protection safeguards bodily autonomy and access against political change.

Opponents say: Priests for Life argues the amendment would restrict future voters' and lawmakers' ability to regulate abortion.

Sources and reporting dates

Alabama · Statewide Amendment 3

Daily Pledge of Allegiance and student-led prayer

A yes vote: Requires public-school boards to adopt policies for a daily Pledge of Allegiance and to allow student-initiated, student-led prayer.
A no vote: Leaves the state constitution unchanged.

Students may opt out of either activity. This does not require students to pray and is not the separate Ten Commandments law.

Arguments and sources

Supporters say: Sponsor Rep. Reed Ingram argues it offers students an opportunity for worship they may not have at home.

Opponents say: Rev. Julie Conrady argues school religious measures can burden religiously diverse students and parents' choices about religious exposure.

Sources and reporting dates

Virginia · Question 1

Right to reproductive freedom

A yes vote: Adds constitutional protection for reproductive care, including contraception, pregnancy care, abortion, miscarriage management and fertility care. Allows third-trimester abortion regulation but protects care needed for the patient's life or physical or mental health, or when the fetus is not viable.
A no vote: Does not add the proposed constitutional protection; existing reproductive-care laws remain subject to ordinary legislative and judicial processes.

Officially listed on the ballot. Procedural and ballot-language challenges could continue after voting; challengers' counsel reported filing an appellate opening brief Oct. 19.

Arguments and sources

Supporters say: Sen. Jennifer Boysko argues constitutional protection keeps personal healthcare decisions with individuals rather than politicians.

Opponents say: Protect Virginia 2026 argues the amendment would remove safeguards for women and children; its claimed legal effects are disputed.

Sources and reporting dates

Virginia · Question 2

Marriage equality

A yes vote: Removes the state constitutional same-sex marriage ban; protects marriage between two adults regardless of sex, gender or race and equal treatment of lawful marriages.
A no vote: Keeps the present constitutional wording, including a same-sex marriage ban currently unenforceable under federal constitutional law.

A No vote would not itself outlaw currently lawful same-sex marriages.

Arguments and sources

Supporters say: Virginians for Marriage Equality argues state protection would safeguard families if federal marriage precedents change.

Opponents say: Family Foundation president Victoria Cobb argues the separate references to sex and gender could lead to legal disputes beyond marriage; this is her prediction, not an established effect.

Sources and reporting dates